| "Recently, an international authoritative organization assessed that China's total domestic consumption will surpass the United States for the first time in 2018. This means that after 2018, the world's largest market will no longer be the United States but China. Regardless of whether this prediction is accurate, China's potential The market size is three to four times that of the United States, and it is constantly turning from potential to reality, which is a foreseeable future prospect." This statement by Chinese Foreign Minister Yi in his speech at the opening ceremony of the China-Latin America Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum and the China-Latin America Entrepreneurs Council attracted the attention of many people in the industry. Yi also said, "As time goes by, China's trade structure with the United States and other countries will undergo fundamental changes sooner or later. Now when visiting the United States, especially places in the United States, what governors and entrepreneurs of various states care about is not what China exports to them, but what they can export to them. What does China export? It will become an unstoppable trend to be more concerned about and willing to enter the Chinese market. In the future, exports to China from many countries, including the United States, are likely to exceed imports from China, and the structure of Sino-foreign trade will also be reversed, and China may face a deficit." "In fact, the Chinese government's views on China's trade status and foreign trade have changed. This is not the first time the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said this." Zhong Feiteng, director and associate researcher of the Great Power Relations Research Office of the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from China Trade News that the new formulation in Yi's speech was that China will become the world's largest consumer market in 2018. Zhong Feiteng said that this change can be traced. As early as April 7, 2013, the Chairman mentioned in his keynote speech at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference that in the next five years, China will import goods worth about 10 trillion US dollars, the scale of overseas investment will reach 500 billion US dollars, and the number of outbound tourists may exceed 400 million. "From President Xi's mention of import data, foreign investment data and outbound tourism data to China's decision to hold the China International Import Expo in November 2018, we can clearly see some new trends." Zhong Feiteng said. In the past many years, no country has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest consumer market, and Japan did not surpass it at that time. In Zhong Feiteng's view, one of the reasons why the United States has gained the right to speak internationally is that it has a huge consumer market. "We used to say that 'China contributes 30% to world economic growth,' but this statement was relatively abstract. If China becomes the world's largest consumer market and import market, then China's economic growth contribution to the world economy will become visible and tangible, and the world will see China's real contribution more clearly in the future. This is of great significance for re-understanding the relationship between China and the world." Zhong Feiteng believes that this change in foreign trade will also promote domestic supply-side structural reform. Because increasing the scale of external imports can stimulate domestic manufacturers to improve product quality. In an era where consumers are becoming more and more picky and have higher and higher requirements for product quality, this kind of stimulation is extraordinary. Since the reform and opening up, my country has maintained a relatively large trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves for a long time. As imports increase and the trade deficit becomes more acceptable, my country's international balance of payments structure is also facing new adjustments. "Back then, China's economy was small, so it was extraordinary to retain a lot of foreign exchange reserves. But as China's economy gets bigger, it's another question whether it still needs so many foreign exchange reserves. In the past, it bought a lot of U.S. Treasury bonds, and the effect was not good." Zhong Feiteng said that from a systemic perspective, expanding the scale of imports and bundling it with the economies of more countries can weaken the hegemony of the U.S. dollar. Expanding imports will also expand the foreign use of the RMB, and also play a supporting role in the internationalization of the RMB. Overall, the above changes involve the advancement of my country’s foreign trade thinking framework and opening-up strategy. For example, Zhong Feiteng said that some original policies to encourage exports need to be adjusted appropriately. In the past, processing and manufacturing received the most attention, but now more attention must be paid to the environment, sanitation, health and other aspects, and investment in these areas must be increased; as the manufacturing industry upgrades and the economy enters a stage of high-quality development, the foreign trade strategy must be readjusted in accordance with the new principal social contradictions pointed out in the report of the 19th National Congress. |